DROUGH EARLY WARNING

I would like to share what is happening every day; In recent years droughts have been occurring frequently and a large percentage of the population is already vulnerable to a range of natural hazards with increasing climate variability expected to aggravate the situation further by causing more frequent and intense droughts.

As a result, drought early warning system based on seasonal climate forecasts and drought hydrology has been receiving much attention. The reference we have and illustrating now it’s the case study from Philippines and Indonesia based on the program to make practical use of ENSO forecasts in designing drought risk management strategies for climate sensitive activities, particularly agriculture and water resources.

The concern applied to enable societies to deal with climate variability, offered an opportunity to educate public and policy makers about long-term climate change, drought risk and mitigation options. To design drought early warning involves study of past El Niño and La Niña events in Indonesia and Philippines, their impacts, and institutional responses to those events and analysis of global climate models. The study revealed that while countries needed timely, usable climate information to manage resources effectively and reduce drought risks, localized and usable climate information were not available to resource managers to take appropriate decisions.

ü  Opportunity to educate public and policy makers about long-term climate change, drought risk and mitigation options   v  climate information to manage resources effectively and reduce drought risks, localized and usable climate information were not available to resource managers to take appropriate decisions

 

A customized drought early warning offered a platform for advocating that the best way to deal with drought risk with current climate variability. Partnerships were made across relevant agencies and sectors helped raise awareness about the potential for addressing drought risk through the use of climate information of different timescales.

The key achievements in both countries are instrumental in establishing institutional mechanisms that connect the hydro-meteorological communities, risk management institutions and societies; a pool of meteorologists had been formed and trained to provide tailored climate information for drought risk management; development of institutional and community-level

Dissemination channels in demonstration sites had been built primarily through climate field schools, climate forums, and community level workshops. Drought forecast applications for disaster mitigation was internalized and owned by local governments involved in the program which can save lives and produce tangible economic benefits.

 

 

AFRICA AND CLIMATE CHANGE

“Population growth is increasing water demand, over exploitation of natural resources and environmental degradation has significantly degraded the world’s freshwater resources. In sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), the number of countries where water demand outstrips available resources is increasing and many African countries experience either water stress (less than 1,700 m3 per capita per annum) or water scarcity (less than 1,000 m3 per capita per annum) or both. Moreover, food insecurity remains endemic throughout much of Africa, with climatic factors such as rainfall variability a major cause. If we look back in 2006, 25 African countries required food aid, largely due to recurring drought. Poverty and food insecurity are linked to low agricultural productivity aggravated by climate change and variability.  45 years ago the Nobel Peace Prize Laureate Norman Borlaug stated, “Humankind in the 21st century will need to bring about a Blue Revolution to complement the Asian Green Revolution of the 20th century… New science and technology must lead the way.”

BACKGROUND African smallholder farmers have no alternative but to adapt to climate change and climate variability. This will require an unprecedented level of political commitment, increased investments and financial resources, and enhanced local and national capacity. Fortunately, several practical options for adaptation exist, and these must be refined, augmented and deployed appropriately as a matter of urgency. Following is a list of some of these options: Ø  Intensification of food production by smallholders through better access to improved seed, soil fertility management (eg, fertilizer application) and reliable water supply Ø  Improved agricultural water management (smallholder irrigation, rainwater harvesting, sustainable extraction of groundwater and other underutilized water resources), conservation agriculture and improved on-farm water use efficiency Shifts towards crop and livestock types/varieties/breeds with greater drought and heat tolerance and improved pest and disease resistance Ø   Enterprise diversification towards higher value crops, value adding (processing), off-farm employment, and marketing infrastructure Ø  Grain storage improvements (from household to national levels) to ensure security of carryover stocks and access to surpluses Ø  Climate forecasting and provision of timely advice to governments, private sector (agro-dealers), extension services and farmers Weather-related crop and livestock insurance

CLIMATE CHANGE AND WATER RESOURCES Agriculture and climate change are inextricably linked, this was stated in one of the meeting after the horn Africa food crisis that “Agriculture is part of the climate change problem, contributing about 13.5% of annual greenhouse gas emissions (with forestry contributing an additional 19%), compared with 13.1% from transportation. Agriculture is, however, also part of the solution, offering promising opportunities for mitigating emissions through carbon sequestration, soil and land use management, and biomass production. Climate change threatens agricultural production through higher and more variable temperatures, changes in precipitation patterns and increased occurrences of extreme events like droughts and floods”. The challenges of water resources development in SSA will be aggravated by ensuing climate change, with serious implications on socio-economic development. The intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in 2007 noted that “these challenges include population pressure, problems associated with land use such as erosion/siltation and possible ecological consequences of land use change on the hydrological cycle. Climate change – especially changes in climate variability through droughts and flooding – will make addressing these problems more complex. The greatest impact will continue to be felt by the poor, who have the most limited access to water resources”. In the savanna regions, the incidence of seasonal flow cessation may be on the increase, as shown by some streams in Zimbabwe. Southern Africa has experienced more recurrent drought and flood episodes in recent times. Drought periods now translate into periods of critical water shortages for industrial and urban domestic supplies. The frequent droughts and floods in most parts of SSA – leading to severe food shortages, food insecurity, water scarcity, hunger/famine and acute shortage of hydro power – signify the region’s vulnerability to climate change. Reduced hydro power also affects energy supply for pumping water. There is a general consensus that the African continent is particularly susceptible to the onset of climate change. A variety of factors exacerbate susceptibility to the effects of climate variability but, in focusing on strictly physical elements, the range of ecosystems present on the continent poses particular challenges in developing mitigation and adaptation mechanisms.

GENDER PERCEPTIVE VS CLIMATE CHANGE Emerging evidence shows that women and girls will experience even greater inequality through the impacts of climate change. It is evident that women suffer disproportionately in nearly all disasters. In 2011 in the Horn of Africa according YOUNG research “disasters shortened women’s life expectancy significantly more than men’s but encouragingly, this association was reduced where women’s status was more equal. Many women are made vulnerable by their reduced access to sources of emergency information, as well as their lack of decision-making power in disaster prevention and preparedness programs; they are also often excluded from disaster recovery operations and from planning at the national level”. I realized that “the unequal impact on women is not only evident in major disaster events – it also affects everyday life and opportunities, since in many low income countries, women already work more hours each day than men. Additionally, in Africa, women are more involved in agriculture than men – an estimated 80% of smallholder farmers are women”. It’s estimated that women produce 60-80% of food grown in the developing world – often small-scale crops critical to sustenance. In SSA, women are responsible for 65% of farming activity in the smallholder irrigation sector In addition; women and girls are responsible for collecting and carrying water, among many other domestic activities. I think “as communities cope with the effects of changes in climate, demands on women’s time and workloads are likely to increase. To compensate for increased demands on their time, poor families may pull girls out of school”. The added stresses incurred by a changing climate compound the many risks already faced by women in developing countries. Consideration and integration of gender issues is therefore important in any assessment of how smallholder water resources management relates to climate change in Africa. The equal inclusion of men and women in all aspects of water resources management is imperative. Gender mainstreaming must focus on a holistic approach to ensure sustainability of climate change adaptation strategies and programs in Africa. Gender-sensitive water governance should address the institutions, policies, legal frameworks and technologies that perpetuate gender inequalities. A gender approach in governance should be an integral part of setting up broader governance structures and mechanisms. This means promoting the involvement of both women and men in consultation and decision making from the community level to the highest management levels. Gender-focused approaches in water governance depend on the skills, knowledge and commitment of staff involved in implementation and management.

POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS The predicted impacts of climate change must be introduced into development planning, including land-use planning, natural resources management, infrastructure design and measures to reduce vulnerability in disaster reduction strategies, the array of adaptation options is very large, ranging from purely technological measures to managerial adaptation and policy reform. For developing countries, availability of resources and adaptive capacity building are particularly important. Based on anticipated climate change and impacts on water resources in Africa, the intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change identified four necessary adaptive strategies. Ø  Adaptive measures. Measures should be adopted that would enhance flexibility, resulting in net benefits in water resources (irrigation and water reuse, aquifer and groundwater management, desalinization), agriculture (crop changes, technology, irrigation, husbandry), and forestry (regeneration of local species, energy-efficient cook stoves, sustainable community management). Ø  Risk sharing. A risk-sharing approach between countries will strengthen adaptation strategies, including disaster management, risk communication, emergency evacuation, and cooperative water resources management. Ø  Enhancement of adaptive capacity. Local empowerment is essential in decision-making in order to incorporate climate adaptation within broader sustainable development strategies. Most countries in Africa are particularly vulnerable to climate change because of limited adaptive capacity as a result of widespread poverty, recurrent droughts, inequitable land distribution and dependence on rain fed agriculture. Ø  Diversification. To minimize sensitivity to climate change, African economies should be more diversified, and agricultural technology should optimize water usage through efficient irrigation and crop development.

BANGLADESH THE SILENT CRISIS

“The Rohingya ethnic minority of Burma are trapped between severe repression in their homeland and abuse in neighboring countries. Bangladesh has hosted hundreds of Thousands of Rohingyas fleeing persecution for more than three decades, but at least 200,000 Rohingya refugees have no legal rights there. They live in squalor, receive very Limited aid and are subject to arrest, extortion and detention. Unregistered refugee women and girls are particularly vulnerable to sexual and physical attacks. The international community must urge the Bangladeshi government to register undocumented refugees and improve protection for all vulnerable Rohingyas. Donor governments must also work to restart and increase resettlement of refugees to a third country and increase assistance for communities”

BACKGROUND The Rohingya ethnic minority of Burma is one of the most persecuted groups in the world. Stripped of their citizenship by the Burmese government in 1982 and forced to flee through violent military campaigns and sustained persecution, over one million Rohingyas now live in exile in Bangladesh, Malaysia, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. Inside Burma, approximately 800,000 Rohingyas live in three townships in Northern Rakhine State, a densely populated region and the poorest part of an already impoverished country. Rohingya children are three times more likely to die before their fifth birthday than other children in Burma and malnutrition rates frequently exceed emergency levels. The World Food Program reported that the food security in the region has worsened over the past two years, with two-thirds of the population hungry. The Rohingya in Northern Rakhine State are subject to particularly severe violations of their human rights, including systematic violence and discrimination by the Burmese border military, known as the NaSaKa. The 1982 citizenship law left them stateless and rendered them illegal migrants in their own country. They are the only ethnic group in Burma restricted from marriage, traveling beyond their village or building or maintaining religious structures. In addition, they are subject to frequent forced labor, arbitrary taxation, and sexual violence and land confiscations by the NaSaKa. Family lists, the basic registration system in Burma, include the names of all residents of each household. For Rohingyas, the lists also include a tally of livestock, and are checked by the NaSaKa on a regular basis. If a resident is not present during a family list check, their name is struck off and the resident is not allowed to return unless an exorbitant tax is paid. Rohingyas in Bangladesh told Refugees International (RI) that even if they could survive in their homeland, they could not sleep at night due to the deep-seated fear of arrest and abuse by the NaSaKa. Violent Burmese military campaigns have been waged against the Rohingya leading to mass influxes into eastern Bangladesh in 1978 and 1991-1992, the vast majority of whom were forcibly repatriated. Today, only 28,000 are recognized as refugees with the Government of Bangladesh and live in Kutupalong and Nayapara camps. Registered refugees receive basic health services, primary education and food rations but about 5,000 of the camp residents were not properly registered and are barred from receiving food rations. At least 200,000 Rohingyas, which include new arrivals and those who had returned after being repatriated, live in unofficial refugee settlements and local villages, mainly in Cox’s Bazar district. The Government only allows the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) and NGOs to work with refugees living in the official camps and even lifesaving activities targeting unregistered refugees are not authorized. DEVELOP A REFUGEE POLICY BASED ON TOLERANCE The central government has conducted a review of its policy on Rohingya refugees in the past year, but the cabinet has repeatedly delayed its finalization. Pending this finalization, the Government of Bangladesh has increased restrictions on aid agencies and centralized all decision-making pertaining to both the registered and unregistered refugees at the Dhaka-level, significantly delaying aid Operations. Despite reports of global acute malnutrition rates of 30% in Kutupalong makeshift camp, which is double the emergency threshold, the Government has denied permits for aid agencies to assist unregistered refugees and host communities.

POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS  Key donor governments, particularly Australia, Canada, the U.S. and the UK, should work with the Bangladeshi government and UNHCR to register undocumented Rohingya refugees in order to strengthen protection and humanitarian assistance and reduce sexual and gender-based violence. Key donor governments should develop a large-scale, needs-based assistance program to assist impoverished local communities hosting Rohingya refugees. The U.S government, together with other recipient countries should initiate large-scale resettlement programs for registered Rohingya refugees. Donor governments should rapidly mobilize $2 million to meet the World Food Program’s funding gap to ensure the provision of full food rations in the official refugee camps in 2014 Shelters are falling apart and are unlikely to resist the upcoming monsoons. In the official camps, government officials abruptly halted refugee resettlement and have closed all income-generating activities, including small shops and tailoring, stating that skills were provided to only help refugees upon their return to Burma. Enhancing the protection and self-sufficiency of all refugees would improve Bangladesh’s internal security and rule of law, in addition to its record on refugee rights. Keeping hundreds of thousands of people undocumented limits adequate government oversight of activities on its territory and creates an environment permissive to criminality, including trafficking, corruption and exploitation. Furthermore, a new comprehensive aid package for Cox’s Bazar would help the district meet the Millennium Development Goals, which is unlikely to occur on its current track. Providing refugees with the right to work would reduce tensions over job competition, stabilize local wages and ensure that Bangladesh workers are not put at a disadvantage. REGISTER THE UNPROTECTED The Government of Bangladesh should work closely with UNHCR to establish a system to register vulnerable and undocumented refugees in order to provide urgent humanitarian aid protection against arrest and deportation and ensure access to justice. There are an estimated 200,000 to 500,000 unregistered Rohingyas living in Bangladesh. While some Rohingyas have been able to gain legal status or integrate into local communities, which share the same language, customs and religion, a significant number have no documentation and are subject to arrest, detention and a litany of abuses, including rape, starvation and indefinite detention and no recourse to justice when they suffer physical or sexual assaults. Refugees are often arrested while collecting firewood in the nearby national forest or while working. If they are unable to pay a bribe or obtain a guarantee from a Bangladesh national for their immediate release, refugees are often charged with illegal entry and sent to jail. Refugees told RI that a bribe between $110 to $400 is required for release, forcing many families into heavy debt. One man interviewed by RI spent over five years in jail waiting for his family to pay a $300 bribe. Over 300 Rohingyas are estimated to be in severely overcrowded conditions in Cox’s Bazar jail, which houses about 3,000 prisoners in a space meant for 800. Fifty-eight Rohingyas in jail have completed their sentence, some more than a decade ago, but they have no family or relatives to pay a bribe and the Burmese authorities refuse to allow them back in Burma, leaving them in indefinite detention.